THE HAGUE--The six Dutch Caribbean islands enjoy a relatively strong reputation in the region as beacons of stability and rule of law, thanks largely to their non-sovereign status and the geopolitical, military, economic and legal protection provided by the Kingdom. This was the key message from Prof. em. Dr. Gert Oostindie, Emeritus Professor of Colonial and Postcolonial History at Leiden University, in his address to the Interparliamentary Kingdom Consultation (IPKO) in The Hague on Saturday.
โNevertheless, there are severe challenges and even threats,โ Oostindie cautioned. โThe islands are extremely vulnerable and cannot face these on their own. This explains and justifies their choice against independence. Cooperation within the Kingdom, and between the trans-Atlantic Kingdom and its strategic partners, remains essential.โ
According to Oostindie, this requires two things. First, for Dutch policymakers: to not lose sight of Caribbean interests in the current wave of geopolitical reorientations. Second, for Caribbean policymakers: to put their own house in order, starting with strong and honest governance at home, with Dutch support where necessary.
๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฑ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ง๐๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ฌ
Although part of Prof. Oostindieโs presentation to the parliamentarians at IPKO was held under confidentiality at the request of the delegates, details emerged through remarks shared with local media by MP Lyndon Lewis. Lewis stated that he had engaged directly with Oostindie following the professorโs references to political corruption, questioning him on the sources of his data and how he could be confident enough to speak about the islands in that way.
In response, Prof. Oostindie referred back to the confidential nature of the discussion, which prevented him from elaborating further. However, he clarified: โMost of my contribution was not on local governance and politics, but I did emphasize, particularly in closing, the importance of good governance and in that context I did indeed mention integrity issues in the Dutch Caribbean.โ
MP Lewis engages with prof. Oostindie.
๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ก๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐จ๐ง
In his wide-ranging lecture, Oostindie stressed that the Caribbean is completely dependent on what happens in the rest of the world, especially the smaller islands whose economies rely primarily on tourism. This includes the six Dutch Caribbean islands. โThey depend on geopolitical and economic stability, but at present the opposite is the case,โ he said, before laying out the main geopolitical challenges.
๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐, ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฌ
The professor pointed out that the causes of climate change lie elsewhere and that the Caribbean islands are not in a position to solve them on their own. In the short term, impacts include stronger and more frequent hurricanes and declining attractiveness for tourism due to coral reef degradation, reduced fish stocks and loss of ecological diversity. In the long term, these impacts will undermine livability for residents and visitors alike, and will likely result in emigration, particularly to the Netherlands. The major geopolitical challenge, he said, is to return climate and environmental issues to the international agenda. โGiven the position of the United States in particular, there is little prospect of this happening anytime soon,โ Oostindie warned.
๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ
Tourism in the Dutch Caribbean depends heavily on the global economy, especially in the United States and the European Union. The outlook is uncertain, Oostindie explained. A downturn in purchasing power in those regions would reduce tourist arrivals, while the islands themselves remain heavily dependent on imported oil and consumer goods. โThe current tariff wars are driving up prices, undermining the purchasing power of both locals and tourists,โ he said. The Antilles cannot control these forces, but they could accelerate their energy transition. He emphasized that in negotiations with the US, the Netherlands must not lose sight of Dutch Caribbean interests.
๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐ฌ
Oostindie traced the changing geopolitical dynamics of the Caribbean. Since 1900, the region has been considered the backyard of the US, with the UK, France and the Netherlands playing supporting roles. The exception was the Soviet Unionโs role in Cuba after 1959. This balance has now shifted, he said, with Trumpโs America First policy creating unpredictability.
โThe US under Trump has become an unpredictable factor, very assertive toward Latin America and the larger Caribbean islands, though not yet toward the European non-sovereign islands. But there is no guarantee this will remain so. Moreover, it is uncertain whether the exchange of crucial intelligence โ on crime and Venezuela โ will continue,โ Oostindie said.
The three European powers were able to act together within the EU, but Brexit weakened this. Cooperation still exists, including militarily with the US, and must be maintained.
Venezuela, although not a new player, assumed a new role under Hugo Chรกvez and Nicolรกs Maduro: geopolitically expansive and involved in international crime despite a weak economy. Trumpโs recent threats and unlawful actions against Venezuela directly implicate Aruba and Curaรงao, given the US military presence there, and the Kingdom as a whole via the Royal Navy. Oostindie noted that while the Navy has a symbolic role in defending Caribbean territory, it could not stop a Venezuelan invasion. NATO has no role here.
China has become increasingly important since 2000, particularly in Venezuela and the Guyanas in connection with oil, but also for political reasons, such as its friendship treaty with Venezuela. Its presence on the Dutch Caribbean islands is limited, but likely to grow.
Russia, too, supports both Cuba and Venezuela, with China doing the same. Neither Cuba nor Venezuela now presents an ideological alternative, making this support primarily strategic against the US. Although the likelihood of Russia or China becoming involved in a US-Venezuela war is low, Oostindie warned of significant military cooperation between Russia, Venezuela and Cuba.
He also noted that Saudi Arabia is a newcomer, with investments in the region that remain limited for now.
๐๐ข๐ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ
Since the 1990s, the largest โAntillean islandโ has developed in the Netherlands itself, now numbering about 175,000 people compared to some 300,000 in the Caribbean. Populations on the islands also grew, mainly through immigration, especially from the region. Up to two-thirds of the island populations consist of first- and second-generation migrants. โThis is already a challenge for the social fabric of the islands,โ he noted.
He highlighted two specific issues:
โข Human smuggling and exploitation of migrants, driven by crises in Venezuela and Haiti combined with weak local enforcement.
โข A constant risk of new refugee flows from Venezuela, with local reception falling below international standards, leaving the Kingdom open to criticism.
๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ซ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ
Drug trafficking remains a major concern, with the islands functioning as hubs between producers in Latin America and consumers in the US and Europe. Some of the drugs remain, fueling local problems. Money laundering through dubious banks and casinos, corruption of political systems, sanctions evasion and human trafficking were also cited as threats.
Tourism depends heavily on a safe image. The Antilles currently score relatively well, but Oostindie warned that one major criminal or terrorist incident could be disastrous. Intelligence sharing is crucial, and frictions with the US pose risks.
The Kingdom plays a critical role through the Royal Navy in combating drug and human smuggling, and through the judiciary โ heavily financed and staffed by the Netherlands โ in prosecution. But there are challenges, including undercapacity and local perceptions that the Public Prosecutor and courts represent Dutch rather than shared Kingdom interests.
โ
https://tribune-site.webflow.io//articles/prof-oostindie-warns-of-severe-geopolitical-and-envio-threats-facing-islands-at-ipko-says-choice-against-independence-justified-by-realities
