SINT MAARTEN (PHILIPSBURG) - There is an overwhelming number of conflicting signals as to how active or even inactive this hurricane season will be, Crown Weather, one of the leading weather reporting organizations in the Caribbean said in a statement on Saturday.
“On one hand, it looks very likely that an intensifying El Nino may reach moderate to even strong status by this Autumn. On the other hand, an insane amount of very warm ocean waters, as compared to normal, exists across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Which factor will be more dominant during this hurricane season? That’s the big question.
“Strong wind shear created by the developing El Nino should put some sort of lid on this hurricane season. That said, if there are pockets of lower wind shear, it could lead to tropical systems to undergo some significant strengthening due to the very above average ocean water temperatures.
European Model continues to Forecast Moderate to Strong El Nino
“The latest seasonal guidance from the European ensemble guidance was posted very recently and it’s quite curious.
“The European ensemble model guidance continues to forecast a moderate to even strong El Nino to be in place by late this summer. Usually, this sort of an El Nino would virtually shut down any Atlantic hurricane activity due to strong wind shear. However, the Atlantic, as I’ve mentioned quite a few times, is extremely warm right now and this could mitigate the usual wind shear impacts and still give us a pretty active hurricane season.
European Model Forecast Active Atlantic Hurricane Season with 17-Named Storms
“In addition to this, the European ensemble seasonal guidance is forecasting an active Atlantic with 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes, in spite of a moderate to even strong El Nino.
“It should be noted though that the European seasonal model forecasted an extremely active hurricane season last year that did not verify at all. It’s possible that the European model may be running “too hot” in terms of its hurricane season forecast.
“Adding one more signal that makes predicting the season even more difficult is the rainfall across the Sahel part of Africa. Above average rainfall across the Sahel is expected this Summer through the Autumn. Research has shown that above average rainfall during an El Nino year, has still led to at least an average hurricane season and even a slightly above average hurricane season. This includes past hurricane seasons such as 1877, 1896, 1899, 1900, 1951, 1953, 1969, 2018 and 2019.
“It should also be noted that the El Nino shear effects across areas outside of the Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico is limited, at best. This means that you can still see an active hurricane season near the Bahamas and the Southeast US coast even during an El Nino season.
“In fact, the combination of a developing El Nino, a strong west Africa monsoon and above average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic tends to favor tropical cyclone tracks towards parts of the subtropics, including the eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, the Bahamas, the Florida Peninsula and the US Southeast Coast.
“Another curiosity with this sort of setup for this hurricane season is that it’s quite rare and we haven’t really seen it during the modern era. The last time we’ve seen an intensifying El Nino combine with well above ocean waters in the Atlantic are during the late 19th century and more specifically 1877 and 1888. Both of those hurricane seasons seemed to have clustered tracks on the northeast US Gulf Coast, the Bahamas and near the North Carolina coast.
“In Closing - The “tug-of war” between the tropical Atlantic and the tropical Pacific is going to make for a very interesting case study for this hurricane season. I do think that the overwhelming effects from the strengthening El Nino should win out and suppress a lot of tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
“That said, the strong West Africa monsoon, above average rainfall in the Sahel part of Africa and the very much above average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, I think could lead to an area of quite busy activity just north of the Caribbean and in the southwestern North Atlantic,” Crown Weather said on Saturday in a statement.
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