SINT MAARTEN (PHILIPSBURG) – May 1 represents one month away from the start of the six-month 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season. Crown Weather is already looking at the possibility of early season tropical development in either the western Caribbean or near the Bahamas towards the later parts of this month (May) or at the very start of June, the weather forecaster organization said on Monday.
If the first named storm materializes it will be called Arlene.
“There’s the possibility that an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation could push into the Caribbean and Atlantic later this month. This, in turn, could lead to a favorable background state for tropical development across the Atlantic Basin by late this month or at the very latest during the first part of June.
“In fact, the very long-range model guidance such as the CFS model seems to be hinting that the western Caribbean may be a spot to watch for possible tropical development near the very end of this month. It’s certainly something that I’m going to be keeping a close eye on. That said, it’s nothing to be overly concerned about or worried about at this time,” Crown Weather said on Monday.
Majority of storm activity could develop in June, July, August and early September
Crown Weather also sees based on its own analysis of long-term weather models, that the hurricane season could ramp up early where the majority of storm development would take place in the first three months of the June 1 to November 30 season, with activity slowly declining after early September.
Crown Weather: “Another thing that I’m considering and watching closely is the possibility that a majority of the tropical storm and hurricane activity could occur during June, July, August, and early September with the hurricane shutting down after early September.
“The reason why I think this is possible is due to the forecast onset of El Nino conditions. All indications point to a moderate to even strong El Nino being in place by this Autumn and especially during the Winter. If this happens, the much warmer than average ocean waters in the Pacific could inhibit tropical development in the Atlantic due to very strong wind shear. This means that these much more unfavorable conditions could certainly develop by Autumn leading to an earlier than normal shutdown of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.”
The remaining names for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season are: Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney.