CARIBBEAN/SINT MAARTEN - Satellite imagery and weather data indicates that there is a healthy looking tropical disturbance that’s located over the eastern Tropical Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Crown Weather reported on Monday morning, August 10, 2026.
“This disturbance is located near 10 North Latitude, 30 West Longitude. This disturbance is producing a small area of deep thunderstorm activity & analysis reveals that it is located within a pocket of moisture. Additionally, it seems that the low-level and mid-level spin associated with the disturbance has increased a bit as well.
“Analysis of wind shear values reveals that this disturbance seems to be traveling within a zone of favorable environmental conditions with wind shear values averaging between 10 and 20 knots.
“Based on my current analysis of this disturbance, I do think that there is a decent shot of this system becoming a tropical depression and probably a tropical storm towards the later parts of this week as it moves into the central Tropical Atlantic,” Crown Weather said.
Crown Weather: “Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The model guidance have trended towards the idea that this disturbance will likely develop later this week. Additionally, the model guidance seem to suggest that this system might get close to the northeastern Caribbean & because of this, those of you in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should keep close tabs on the progress of this disturbance.
“Models such as the Google Deep Mind model and European AIFS model shows a scenario that has this disturbance tracking very near, if not right over the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late this weekend as a tropical storm.
“As for other model guidance, the GFS model forecasts this disturbance to stay well east of the Caribbean and Bermuda with no threat to anyone. The European model guidance forecasts this system to stay to the east of the Caribbean, but forecasts it to get very close to Bermuda around the middle part of next week. Finally, the Canadian model seems to be the most threatening & shows this system impacting the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late this weekend as a tropical storm. Beyond this, the Canadian model shows this system threatening the southeastern Bahamas early next week as a tropical storm.”
Crown Weather: “Here Are My Thoughts: First of all, I think that it is very likely that the tropical disturbance located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands will not only become a tropical depression, but probably will become a tropical storm late this week as it heads westward reaching the central Tropical Atlantic.
“Even though I think it’s likely that this disturbance will become a tropical storm (name will be Cristobal) later this week, the environmental conditions are expected to be marginally favorable for strengthening. Because of this, I don’t expect this system to become significantly strong & probably will top out at a tropical storm.
“The next question is how close will this system get to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend – I do think that this disturbance definitely needs to be watched closely if you are in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. That said, the most I could see this system becoming is a tropical storm that mainly brings some very much needed rainfall to the northeastern Caribbean.
“Beyond this, it appears that the most likely track, after this disturbance moves near or over the northeastern Caribbean, is for it to curve northward well east of the United States. The reason for this is that it appears that there will be a break in the high pressure system over the central and western Atlantic & this should allow this system to curve to the north and to the northeast. Because of this, this system poses no threat to the United States and probably the Bahamas. It is possible, however, that this system could track near Bermuda by the middle part of next week.”
