Consumer prices Sint Maarten December 2017.

May 1, 2018

Bi-monthly price index up slightly and annual inflation rates steadily increase.

The Consumer Price Index for Sint Maarten has increased in the month of December 2017 by 0.6 percent compared to that of October 2017.
When comparing average consumer prices over a twelve month period (December 2016 to December 2017), an increase of 2.2% was recorded compared to the same period one year earlier. Inflation has shown an overall increase in 2017 (2.2%) compared to the rate of inflation recorded in 2016 (0.1%).
This is evident from the data released by the Department of Statistics (STAT)

Bi-monthly Consumer Price Index Price changes between October 2017 and December 2017

The Consumer Price Index for Sint Maarten has increased in the month of December
2017 by 0.6 percent compared to that of October 2017. The price index recorded in December 2017 is 132.0

Expenditure Categories – overall increase

In December 2017, six of the nine expenditure categories recorded increases, two decreased in price and one remained stable. Amongst the more expensive were the categories: ‘Food’ (+0.3%), ‘Beverages & Tobacco’ (+1.3%), ‘Housing’ (+1.4%), ‘Household Furnishing & Appliances’ (+0.2%), ‘Medical Care’ (+3.2%) and ‘Transport & Communication’ (+0.2%). Whereas, decreases were recorded for the expenditure categories: ‘Clothing & Footwear’ (-1.6%) and ‘Recreation & Education’ (-0.2%). The category ‘Miscellaneous’ remained constant.

Food

FOOD EXPENDITURE CATEGORY 10% of CPI

Within the Food category, five of the nine sub groups became more costly, while four were less expensive. The following groups recorded increases: Meat and Fish (+1.9%), Dairy Products (+4.0%), Pre-cooked Dishes (+1.1%), Eating-out (+3.0%) and Other Food Resources (+0.4%), while Grain (-0.5%), Fats & Oils (-1.0%), Potatoes, Vegetables & Fruits (-2.9%) and Sugar & Chocolate (- .2%) became cheaper.More specifically, certain products within the Food subgroups largely influenced the total price change of the Food category. Hence, the group ‘Grain’ was influenced by white bread (-2.7%), rolls, buns & croissants (-3.7%), macaroni & spaghetti (+2.05) and cornflakes & rice flakes (-2.5%). The group ‘Meat & Fish’ was impacted most by: Beef (+4.7%), other beef organs (-14.3%), pork chops (-1.8%), spareribs (-3.6%), goat meat (+18.4%), chicken & chicken organs (+4.3%), fish (+7.5%), salted & dried fish (7.5%) and canned salmon (7.6%). The largest influences of the group ‘Dairy Products’ were: canned milk (-2.5%), powdered milk (+2.5%), yoghurt & custard (-3.3%), regular cheese (+3.7%), cheese n.e.c (+23.9%) and eggs (+27.2%).

The price change of the subgroup ‘Potatoes, Vegetables & Fruits’ was largely due to: leafy greens (-8.1%), Cole crops such as broccoli, cabbage, cauliflower, kale, etc. (+8.9%), carrots and tuber crops such as sweet potatoes, cassava, yams, etc. (+10.0%), garlic and onions (-6.1%), tomatoes (+5.5%), fresh culinary herbs3 (-10.3%), apples and pears (-16.7%), grapes, plums and strawberries (-3.8%), other citrus fruits (+13.2%), plantain (-35.9%), currents and raisins (-2.1%) and peanuts (+39.5%).

Housing

HOUSING EXPENDITURE CATEGORY 39% of CPI

Within the Housing category, it was noted that four of the five product groups became more expensive and one remained stable. The product groups: ‘Energy expenses’
‘Maintenance of dwelling’, ‘Garden maintenance’ and ‘Dwelling costs’ increased by +7.5%, +0.1%, +0.2% and +0.4% respectively.

An increase in the consumer price of electricity by 8.9% largely influenced the total price change within the product group ‘Energy Expenses’, while ‘Maintenance of Dwelling’ was impacted most by outdoor paint (-1.2%) and labour costs (+0.6%).

Transport & Communication

TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY
20% of CPI

Of the four product groups within the Transport & Communication category, two categories recorded a price change: ‘Vehicle Expenses’ (+0.5%) and ‘Communication’ (-0.1%). The group ‘Vehicle Expenses’ was influenced by engine parts (+2.4%), car tires (-1.3%), batteries (-26.9%), mufflers (-5.6%), gasoline (+2.4%), oil, engine oil, etcetera (-3.3%) and extra vehicle expenses (+33.3%).

Total Consumer Price Index (December 2014 – December 2017) A period to period comparison

The total Consumer Price Index for each month in 2017 were at a higher level than 3 years ago (see figure 4). The overall trend for the 3-year period depicts gradual increasing prices, despite a decline during August 2015 through to April 2016.

A comparison of year-end index figures at December from 2014 to 2017 shows a similar upward trend: 126.6, 126.4, 128.2 and 132.0. Only in December 2015 was the index a little lower than at the same period in 2014. Therefore, with the little aforementioned volatility over the last 3 years, the figures indicate that there is a steady increase in prices.

3-year Overview of the Total Consumer Price Index for Sint Maarten Figure 4

Sint Maarten Consumer Price Index (2015 – 2017) a closer look into the developments

The developments in overall consumer prices has shown a steady increasing trend over the past 3 year period with little fluctuations. There are nine Household Expenditure Categories used to calculate the total CPI. Three of these account for 69% of the total household expenditure: Housing (39%), Transportation & Communication (20%) and Food (10%).

In this section, we will discuss the monthly developments from 2015 – 2017 of the three major expenditure categories.

Housing

There has been a downward to upward shift in the trend in the ‘Housing’ category over the past 3 years. From January 2015 to April 2016, a decrease was recorded in the consumer price index of this category. However, from May 2016 there was a steady increase in the index for 4 months, then no further fluctuations for over a year. But, as of September 2017, after the passage of hurricane Irma, to December 2017, once again the prices for this category has recorded a noticeable increase.

Energy expenses, and maintenance of dwelling, have influenced the increase in this category. The annual price index for energy expenses, of which electricity rates carry the most weight, has seen a 6% increase in 2017 compared to 2016. Furthermore, it should be noted that the index figures for the last quarter of 2017 are the highest that it has been since 2006.
Transportation & Communication

Transportation & Communication accounts for 20% of the total household expenditure. Over the past 3-years, there has been volatility in the price index for this category. However, the overall trend shows that the prices have decreased. There were three periods of noticeable decreases in the consumer price index: from September 2015 to February 2016, July to August 2016 and from January to April 2017. Although there were periods of slight increases in the index level, they were not significant enough to affect the overall downward trend of the index. It should be noted that the index figures for the last quarter of 2017 have been relatively stable.

Food

Food accounts for 10% of the total household expenditure. Over the past 3 years, the price index for this category has recorded a steady increase. There were two periods of slight decreases in overall food prices: March to June 2016 and in July and August 2017, however, this did not alter the overall upward trend of the index development.

The prices of Meat and fish, dairy products, potatoes, vegetables and fruits have influenced the increase in the ‘Food’ category. The annual price index for these subgroups have increased in 2017 by 6%, 2% and 10% respectively relative to in 2016.

It should be noted that the price index of food for the last quarter of 2017, is the highest that it has been since 2006. A likely result of the passage of hurricane Irma, after which certain food related products were scarce.

Inflation Rate: Sint Maarten a Broader Perspective

The trend line below indicates that inflation on Sint Maarten over the prior 3-year period has been relatively low, but is no longer on a decline. The steady increase in the inflation rate from December 2016 to present has resulted in a slightly upward trend, overall.

The 12-month average of consumer prices in December 2017 was 2.2% higher than one year earlier. This represents an increase of 2.1 percentage points in 2017 above 2016.

Monthly Inflation for the Major Expenditure Categories December 2016 – December 2017

Figure 9

Analysis of the monthly figures of these categories showed that inflation has steadily increased in both the Food and Housing categories. The increase in the Food category began in May 2017 and from October to December 2017, there was a constant percentage point increase of 0.4 each month.

It should be highlighted that the average price development in the Housing category from January to December 2017 has also recorded a continuous increase in the inflation rate.

Deflation has been maintained in the Transport & Communication category and the figures have been fairly consistent from February to December 2017.

The monthly developments amongst the three major expenditure categories are illustrated in figure 9 above.
Annual Inflation for the Major Expenditure Categories (2009 – 2017)

Source: St. Martin News Network http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-martin-news/29036-consumer-prices-sint-maarten-december-2017.html