UPDATED — The National Hurricane Center in Miami named Irma a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour and higher gusts.
At 11 a.m. on Sunday, the system was located at 17.7 N – 48.4 W.
St. Maarten coordinates are 18.0425 N – 63.0548 W.
Based on these coordinates, the system was 38 kilometers south of St. Maarten and 1,622 kilometers to the east.
Moving at a speed of 22 kilometers per hour, it would take the storm around 74 hours to reach St. Maarten’s longitude. That puts the arrival of the storm at around noon on Wednesday.
Hurricane force winds extend up to 35 kilometers outward from the center of the system, narrowly missing St. Maarten at the current latitude.
Tropical storm force winds extend up to 130 kilometers outward from the storm’s center.
St. Maarten is therefore, based on the information available on Sunday morning at 11 a.m., in for some really bad weather.
UPDATE: Sunday, 03 Sep 2017 – 5pm
On Sunday morning at 11 a.m. Irma’s location was at 17.7 N and 48.4 W. St. Maarten’s coordinates are 18.0425 N and 63.0548 W. this shows that the center of the system was just 38 kilometers south of St. Maarten and 1,622 kilometers to the east. At a speed of 22 kilometers per hour, the system is now expected to be the closest to St Maarten’s coordinates on Wednesday around noon, though the National hurricane center said at 5 p.m. yesterday afternoon that the northern Leeward Islands would start feeling the storm by late Tuesday.
At 5 p.m. the storm was located at 17.6 N – 49.8 W. That’s just 44 kilometers south of St. Maarten and 1,467 kilometers to the east.
Maximum sustained winds remained 185 kilometers per hour, but the National Hurricane Center said that the system is strengthening over the next 48 hours. Hurricane winds now extend 55 kilometers outward from the center, indicating that St. Maarten will experience hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force winds extend 220 kilometers outward from the center.