Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017

200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

…DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…

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SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION

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LOCATION…11.9N 51.6W

ABOUT 695 MI…1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* St. Lucia

* Martinique

* Guadeloupe

* Dominica

* Barbados

* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better organized and is now classified as a tropical depression. At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 51.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: The Daily Herald https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/69423-tropical-depression-fifteen-intermediate-advisory-number-1a

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