NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers activity has increased and become a little better organized today in association with a tropical wave located about 350 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is expected to form
by the middle of the week. The system will move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
Source: The Daily Herald https://www.thedailyherald.sx/islands/82501-tropical-weather-outlook-100-pm-est-sun-nov-11-2018