SAN JUAN-- Cruise passenger volumes in the Caribbean are projected to reach approximately 21 million by 2031, nearly double the 11 million recorded in 2019, as continued global industry expansion creates opportunities for Caribbean destinations to attract visitors, investment and greater economic benefits.
The projections were presented during the 32nd Annual Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association (FCCA) Cruise Conference & Trade Show in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where tourism economists highlighted the industry's growth prospects and the importance of measuring its full contribution to destination economies.
The figures were discussed during a specialty session titled “Cruise Tourism's Economic Impact — Insights From Oxford Economics,” featuring Michael Greve, Practice Lead for Port Development & Investment Advisory at Tourism Economics, and Michele Reiser, Senior Business Development Manager at Tourism Economics.
According to the presentation, Caribbean cruise passenger volumes are expected to reach approximately 13 million in 2026, compared with 11 million in 2019. The forecast of 21 million passengers by 2031 points to significant additional growth over the next five years.
The outlook reflects broader expansion across the global cruise industry, which welcomed approximately 37 million passengers in 2025. Worldwide passenger numbers are projected to reach 46 million by 2031.
Approximately 80 new cruise ships are currently on order, signaling continued investment by cruise lines and expectations of sustained passenger demand.
The session emphasized that cruise tourism's economic contribution cannot be measured solely by the amount passengers spend during their time ashore.
While spending at restaurants, retail establishments, attractions and tour operations provides direct economic benefits, cruise activity also supports employment, transportation providers, local suppliers and numerous businesses connected to the tourism industry.
These benefits extend throughout local economies through indirect and induced economic activity.
Indirect impacts occur when businesses serving cruise visitors purchase goods and services from other companies. Induced impacts arise when employees and business owners spend income earned through cruise-related activity.
The speakers highlighted the need for destinations to understand these wider economic effects when evaluating cruise tourism policies, infrastructure investments and development opportunities.
An upcoming economic impact study being conducted by FCCA in partnership with Oxford Economics is expected to provide Caribbean destinations with more comprehensive information about the industry's contribution to their economies.
The study will expand the measurements traditionally used to evaluate cruise tourism by examining gross domestic product contributions, capital investment and economic activity at the port level.
This broader approach is intended to help governments, tourism authorities, port operators and private investors better assess the value of cruise tourism and identify opportunities for economic development.
More detailed destination-level information could also help Caribbean governments evaluate whether tourism investments are producing the expected economic benefits and where improvements may be necessary.
The presentation emphasized that reliable economic data is increasingly important as destinations compete for cruise traffic while seeking to maximize the benefits generated by visiting passengers.
The conference also highlighted the expanding luxury cruise market as a potential growth opportunity for Caribbean destinations.
Luxury cruise deployment and capacity in the region have increased by 41 percent over the past three years, indicating growing interest in higher-end Caribbean itineraries.
This segment presents opportunities for smaller ports and destinations capable of offering distinctive experiences, specialized excursions and premium tourism services.
For destinations that cannot accommodate the industry's largest vessels, luxury and smaller-ship cruising may provide alternative opportunities for attracting cruise visitors and developing higher-value tourism products.
However, the speakers emphasized that destinations must understand their market potential and available infrastructure before pursuing new development projects.
With more cruise ships entering service and passenger numbers expected to increase, Caribbean destinations face decisions about the infrastructure and services needed to accommodate future demand.
The session stressed that investment in cruise ports, transportation systems, tourism facilities and visitor experiences must be supported by realistic market assessments and financially viable development plans.
Partnerships between governments, port authorities, cruise lines and private investors were identified as important in ensuring that projects reflect each destination's needs and commercial opportunities.
The presentation also underscored the importance of avoiding investments based solely on projected passenger growth without adequately considering local market conditions, financial sustainability and the wider economic benefits.
For Caribbean destinations, the projected expansion presents opportunities to strengthen tourism businesses, generate employment and attract investment. However, realizing those benefits will depend on how effectively destinations plan for growth and connect cruise activity with the broader local economy.
The FCCA conference discussions reinforced that increasing passenger numbers alone is not sufficient to determine the success of cruise tourism.
As the Caribbean moves toward a projected 21 million cruise passengers by 2031, the ability to measure economic contributions accurately and make informed investment decisions will play an increasingly important role in determining how much of that growth translates into lasting benefits for Caribbean communities.
