“The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be extremely active, both in terms of the number of storms and potential impacts in the Caribbean and along the U.S. coast (particularly the Gulf Coast),” Crown Weather said recently in a updated its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The combination of La Niña conditions developing this summer and significantly above-average ocean temperatures in the deep tropics is expected to lead to an extremely active hurricane season. Additionally, the average storm track is expected to be farther west than last year, meaning the Caribbean, the southwest North Atlantic (near the Bahamas and Florida), and the Gulf of Mexico could be particularly threatened. The numbers: 25 named storms, 12 of these storms becoming hurricanes and 6 of these hurricanes becoming major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
ENSO conditions: Current El Niño conditions are rapidly weakening with colder than average waters in the Eastern Pacific. It is very likely that ENSO conditions will become neutral during the month of April and that they will transform into La Niña conditions around July and August.
This reversal in ENSO conditions means it will almost certainly favor tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin this season, with much higher than average amounts of activity in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes .
Once again, the lack of a true winter this year has had a significant impact on seawater temperatures in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, with temperatures well above average.
Landing Threat Forecast: two areas are particularly targeted for the coming season in terms of the impact of a tropical storm or hurricane.
The first area is the Caribbean, particularly the northeast and northwest Caribbean. Extremely warm ocean temperatures in the depths of the eastern tropical Atlantic, combined with developing La Niña conditions and an upper-air weather pattern that includes a significant Bermuda High to the north, mean that tropical storms and Long-track hurricanes will pose a very great threat. The northeastern Caribbean islands, including the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could be at significant risk this season. The northwestern Caribbean islands, including the Cayman Islands, the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba may also be at significant risk this season.
The second area of particular concern is a corridor from the Bahamas to the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Peninsula. As previously mentioned, the main track of storms this season will be further west than last year, meaning many storms will pass through the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula. The eastern Gulf of Mexico can be affected in two ways: by systems moving west from the Bahamas and by systems moving north from the Caribbean.
Hurricane season: the list of names chosen for 2024: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William _AF
Source: Faxinfo https://faxinfo.fr/en/saison-cyclonique-2024-le-nombre-de-phenomenes-climatiques-de-forte-intensite-pourrait-bien-augmenter-encore-cette-annee/
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