Since becoming a depression early Friday afternoon, deep convection has continued to develop, with infrared satellite imagery showing cold cloud tops down to -80C. The circulation center remains on the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system gradually becomes better organized. Intensity estimates have increased in recent hours and are around 34-36 kt. The depression therefore strengthened to become tropical storm Beryl. This is one of the rare storms in history to have formed in the central or eastern Atlantic this early in the year.
Beryl is moving westward at a speed of 16 kt, guided by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should allow Beryl to move rapidly westward to west-northwest over the next few days, the pattern remains tightly clustered as the system heads towards the south-central West Indian arc. The NHC trajectory forecast is very similar to the previously predicted trajectory. According to this forecast, the system should cross the Windward Islands (Dominique, Grenada, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent) during the night from Sunday to Monday
\nand move towards the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on Monday until the middle of next week.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions, sea surface temperatures, humidity and low vertical wind shear, atypical for this time of year, are quite favorable for Beryl to strengthen over the next few days.
Thus, the NHC intensity forecasts predict that the system will become a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean arc. It should be noted that a part of the forecast models are even more aggressive than the official forecasts. Some models show the system will become a major hurricane before reaching the islands.
Summary :
1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night, bringing a risk of heavy precipitation, hurricane-force winds, storm surges and waves dangerous.
2. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings will likely be issued for some islands Saturday morning.
3. Central and Western Caribbean countries should monitor the progress of this system. It is reminded that there is great uncertainty after 4 and 5 days and not to focus on the current trajectory forecasts.
Source: NHC
https://faxinfo.fr/en/la-tempete-tropicale-beryl-va-passer-en-ouragan-et-se-dirige-vers-le-sud-de-la-caraibe/
