Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands… cyclone watches are in progress
French Newsletter
Tropical Storm Advisory Beryl Number 4
NWS national hurricane center miami FL AL022024
1100 am Atlantic time Saturday June 29, 2024
…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
…CYCLONIC WATCHES ARE ISSUED…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
—————-
LOCATION…10.0N 47.8W
APPROXIMATELY 820 MI…1320 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
CURRENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES
ALERTS AND WARNINGS
——-
CHANGES WITH THIS NOTICE:
The French government has issued a tropical storm watch for Martinique.
The government of Saint Lucia has issued a hurricane watch for the island.
The Government of Barbados has issued a hurricane watch for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a hurricane watch for Grenada and a tropical storm watch for Tobago.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A hurricane watch is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. LUCIA
* Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
* Pomegranate
A tropical storm watch is in effect for…
*Martinique
* Tobago
DISCUSSION AND PERSPECTIVES
——–
Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a rapid rate.
quickly. The storm is now more symmetrical, with the low-level center being
located under a central expanding dense canopy.
Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in sideways curved bands
west of traffic. The initial intensity is increased to
55 kt, consistent with TAFB’s Dvorak estimate, and Beryl is approaching hurricane force.
approaching hurricane force.
Beryl oscillated, but the general movement was towards the west at a speed of 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is expected to allow the storm to continue moving westward at the same speed as hurricanes, generally moving westward at a slightly lower speed.
This movement is expected to take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night into Monday, then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early Monday night into Tuesday.
Towards the middle of next week, the cyclone could rise a little further in latitude, as it is influenced by a weak ridge, before another ridge forms to the northwest. The NHC’s predicted track has been shifted south based on trends from the latest models.
The storm has tended to strengthen steadily since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetrical and compact, it will likely have the opportunity to intensify quickly given the low wind shear conditions . The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly predicts rapid strengthening and shows that Beryl will become a major hurricane before crossing the Windward Islands. The environment becomes somewhat less favorable after Beryl passes through the Caribbean Sea, and an increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause a slow weakening towards the Windward Islands towards the end of the period. This forecast shows a more aggressive strengthening in the short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one.
Key messages:
1. Beryl is expected to strengthen rapidly and become a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands Sunday evening or Monday. Destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surges. A hurricane watch is in effect for much of the Windward Islands.
2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected in the Windward Islands on Sunday evening and Monday.
3. Central and Western Caribbean countries should monitor the progress of this system.
Readers are reminded that there is large uncertainty at 4 and 5 days and not to focus on trajectory details or intensity prediction.
FORECAST MAXIMUM POSITIONS AND WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70KT 80MPH
24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85KT 100MPH
36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95KT 110MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100KT 115MPH
60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100KT 115MPH
72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100KT 115MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90KT 105MPH
120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80KT 90MPH
RISKS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in hurricane watch areas Sunday evening or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning.
Storm surge: A potentially life-threatening storm surge will cause water levels to rise 1,5 to 2 m above normal tide level in areas in coastal flow areas in storm watch areas hurricane. Near the coast, the storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAIN: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce 7 to 15 cm of rainfall across Barbados and the Windward Islands overnight Sunday into Monday.
This precipitation can cause flooding in vulnerable areas.
SWELL: Storm-generated swells are expected to reach the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands by the end of Sunday. These swells are likely to cause swell conditions and rip currents.
Source: Faxinfo https://faxinfo.fr/en/beryl-devrait-devenir-un-ouragan-majeur-dangereux-avant-datteindre-les-iles-du-vent-iles-du-nord-epargnees/
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