SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN - The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are expected to be quiet through all of next week. Satellite imagery indicated that there a lot of dry, dusty air has invaded much of the Atlantic Basin, Crown Weather reported.
“In fact, it looks likely that there’s going to be plenty of Saharan dust occurring across much of the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf…,” and “…in addition to very strong wind shear values will make conditions highly unfavorable for tropical development for at least the next week.” “As for the slight possibility of tropical development off of the coast of the Carolinas next week – It appears that the latest model guidance have decreased their chances for development in this area & I have to agree with this. Even though there is likely to be a stalled frontal boundary in place off of the US East Coast next week, it appears that the low pressure systems that form along this front will be non-tropical and will also head quickly out into the open Atlantic away from the coastline. Because of this, I think that the chances for tropical development during next week near and offshore of the coastal Carolinas are extremely low (less than 10 percent chance).” What Could the Peak Months Of August, September & October Be Like In Terms of Tropical Activity Across the Atlantic Basin
Crown Weather: “A couple of days ago, Colorado State University released their updated forecast for the rest of this hurricane season. In it, they are forecasting 8 more named storms, 4 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 1 of those hurricanes becoming a major hurricane.
Entire hurricane season shutdown?
“This is due to the likelihood of very strong El Nino conditions producing very strong wind shear across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic. This could all but shut down the entire hurricane season across the tropical Atlantic from the coast of Africa westward through the entire Caribbean. “It should be noted though that areas north of 20 North Latitude & especially across the southwestern North Atlantic and the Gulf could be the favorable spot for tropical development during August and September. The wind shear values in this area could be favorable for development at times & this will be something to watch very closely. “There are two ways that we could get tropical development in the southwestern North Atlantic and the Gulf during August and September. The first way is for a tropical wave to survive its westward journey across the tropical Atlantic through the very unfavorable conditions & develop once it pushes north of 20 North Latitude. “The second way for us to see tropical development in the southwestern North Atlantic and the Gulf during August and September is for a tropical system to form in-close to the coast. This is the way I’m leaning towards the most likely way we’ll see development north of 20 North Latitude this season. “Analog years that had significant hurricanes reach their peak intensity near the coast include 1991’s Hurricane Bob, 1965’s Hurricane Betsy and 2015’s Hurricane Joaquin. This is going to be the type of year where tropical waves will have a very hard time surviving coming out of the tropical Atlantic & instead we’ll probably see tropical systems form near the coast.
“This could occur from systems transitioning from a non-tropical system or forming near the tail end of old frontal boundaries. If we do see a tropical wave survive its trek across the barren tropical Atlantic, it would wait to develop and really strengthen once it moved north of 20 North Latitude & near the Bahamas, the southeast coast of the US and near the Gulf coast.
“This all means that this could be a season where any in-close tropical development will lead to very little time to prepare. So, we’ll have to have our heads on a swivel making sure we are aware of any in-close tropical development,” Crown Weather concludes.
