GREAT BAY--St. Maarten’s population reached an estimated 42,449 on January 1, 2025, according to the latest rebased figures from the Department of Statistics. On paper, the number represents continued growth. In practical terms, however, the figures show a population that is expanding at a much slower pace than in earlier years.
The increase from January 2024 to January 2025 was 183 persons, moving from 42,266 to 42,449. That equals growth of approximately 0.4 percent. It is the same growth rate recorded in 2021 and 2022, and lower than the stronger growth years between 2018 and 2020, when the population increased by 1.5 percent, 2.2 percent and 1.3 percent respectively.
STAT explained that the population estimates have been rebased following the 2022 Population and Housing Census. This means the estimates have been aligned with the total population counted in that census, which stood at 41,902 as of January 2023. Anchoring the figures to the census count follows international statistical practice and ensures that the estimates are based on the most reliable population measurement available.
As part of the update, the Civil Registry Department also revised vital statistics for earlier years. As a result, population estimates for those years have also been revised.
The 2025 figures also show that St. Maarten’s population growth is almost evenly split between two forces: natural increase and net migration. Natural increase accounted for 95 persons, or roughly 52 percent of total growth. Net migration accounted for 88 persons, or roughly 48 percent. This means population growth was not driven overwhelmingly by either births over deaths or arrivals over departures, but by a near balance of both.
The birth and death figures are especially important. STAT recorded 339 births and 244 deaths for the most recent period, producing the natural increase of 95. This is lower than the natural increase seen in earlier years. In 2017, the natural increase was 262. In 2018, it was 265. By 2024, it had dropped to 95. That decline suggests that natural population growth has weakened significantly over the period covered by the table.
Births have also moved downward. In 2017, there were 436 births. By the latest reporting period, births stood at 339. That is a decrease of 97 births compared to 2017. Deaths, by contrast, increased from 174 in 2017 to 244 in the latest period. The result is a smaller gap between births and deaths, which means less natural growth.
Migration continues to play an important role, but it is also uneven from year to year. Net migration was 663 in 2019, the highest figure in the table. It fell sharply to 53 in 2021, rose to 242 in 2023, and then dropped to 88 in 2024. The latest figure shows that more people still moved into St. Maarten than moved out, but the margin was modest.
The total population trend from 2017 to 2025 remains upward. St. Maarten moved from an estimated 39,176 persons in January 2017 to 42,449 in January 2025. That is an increase of 3,273 persons over the period. The strongest single-year increase in the table occurred between January 2019 and January 2020, when the population rose by 880 persons. The weakest increases were 176 in 2021, 185 in 2022, and 183 in 2025.
The numbers point to a clear conclusion: St. Maarten is still growing, but the growth is no longer sharp. The population is increasing gradually, with both migration and natural increase contributing. At the same time, lower births, higher deaths compared to earlier years, and smaller migration gains suggest a slower demographic pace.
For planning purposes, the 42,449 estimate matters because even slow growth adds pressure over time. Housing, healthcare, schools, labor demand, infrastructure, utilities and public services all depend on understanding not only how many people live in the country, but how quickly that number is changing.
The latest figures show that St. Maarten is not experiencing rapid population expansion, but neither is it shrinking. The country is in a period of controlled but steady growth. That makes accurate population tracking essential, especially as policymakers try to plan for future demand with numbers that have now been rebased to the 2022 Census.
“STAT remains dedicated to providing dependable and timely demographic information that supports sound, evidence-based decisions,” the department stated. “Estimates such as these help government, businesses and the public understand how the population is developing and plan for the island’s future.”
STAT also advised readers that the latest figures incorporate revised vital statistics from the Civil Registry Department and are aligned to the 2022 Population and Housing Census. Therefore, the figures published now may differ from estimates issued in earlier releases.
The January 1, 2025 estimate is based on the most recent available vital statistics and may be revised as late registrations are processed.
