SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – The first preliminary forecast is out for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season which is a little over two-months away – June 1st – and it calls for an above-normal activity.
The Colorado State University (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science on Thursday issued its first extended range forecast: “We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
The number of named storms forecast are: 16 named storms; of which eight (8) could become hurricanes; and of those eight, four (4) could become major hurricanes of Category 3+; 80 named storm days; 35 hurricane days; and nine major hurricane days for the season.
An average hurricane season sees 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season ended with 18-named storms, that included six hurricanes of which three became major (Category 3, 4 or 5) systems.
The CSU April forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 38 years of past data. The next forecast will be in June.